Monthly Economic Updates
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Domestic economic activities remained positive in October 2016 with mixed indicators. The total agricultural export volumes rose by 2,513.4 tonnes over the month. This is the highest total monthly exports on record since October 2013 reflecting the commencement of the squash season. The secondary sector remained strong, supported by rises in individual housing loans and business loans for the construction and manufacturing sectors. Vehicle registrations rose in October by 65 vehicles (23.1%), whilst container registrations slightly fell by 4 containers (0.5%).Activities in the financial sector were supported by higher credit growth during the month. Air arrivals declined in October however the arrival of the Costa Luminosa, the largest cruise ship to arrive in Tonga supported the tourism sector. Whale watching activities also continued to benefit this sector.
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- Category: Economic Update
Indicators of domestic activity over the month of September were mixed. This was supported by strong performance in the agricultural exports which rose by 329.0 tonnes (36.7%) due to higher exports of squash, brown coconut, and watermelon. Additionally, lending to the agricultural sector increased by 1.4% over the month. On-going construction activities continued to boost performance in the secondary sector, which coincided with a 3.8% growth in business lending for construction and 1.5% increase in individual housing loans. On the other hand, economic activities in the tertiary sector slowed. Total air arrivals declined by 412 passengers (4.2%), in line with a $1.0 million decrease in travel receipts. In addition, total number of container registrations decreased by 96 (8.1%), due to a fall in both business and private containers. Additionally, marine exports also fell by 177.5 tonnes (64.8%).
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The local economic activities were vibrant over the month of August. Total agricultural export volumes rose by 335.4 tonnes, reflecting the commencement of the squash season and higher export of cassava. This was supported by a 7.1% growth in lending to the agricultural sector. Ongoing construction activities continued to boost performance in the secondary sector, supported by a 0.7 million KwH rise in electricity consumption. Increase in business loans for manufacturing also supported this
sector’s expansion. The number of air arrivals rose by 527 passengers benefitting the activities in the tourism sector. The total number of container registrations increased by 377 registrations and 374 vehicles were registered in August, 46.4% and 34.1% higher than the previous month respectively. This echoed an active trade sector and spillover effects to the transportation sector.
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Activities in the domestic economy were mixed in July. From the primary sector, the total volume of agricultural exports decreased by 189.4 tonnes (25.2%) due to a decline in almost all exported commodities. However, according to liaison with stakeholders in the domestic agricultural market, July was relatively more favourable compared to June and growth in lending to the agricultural sector continued to support growth in the sector. The secondary sector continued to show positive activities. Individual housing loans and business construction loans increased over the month by $2.0 million (1.2%) and $0.1 million (1.3%) respectively, which supported the construction sector. In the tertiary sector, international air arrivals declined by 3.0% followed by vehicle registrations decreasing by 21 vehicles (7.0%). Container registrations, on the other hand, increased by 12.3% as a result of higher number business container registrations which rose by 297 containers reflecting a vibrant trade sector during the month and spillover effects to the transportation sector.
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Domestically, partial economic indicators indicated generally positive growth in June. From the primary sector, the total volume of agricultural exports decreased by 49.0 tonnes (6.1%) largely attributed to no export of watermelon during the month compared to the 93.0 tonnes exported in May 2017. According to liaison with stakeholders in the domestic agricultural market, the supply of vegetables and some root crops, except for yam, was relatively more favourable in May compared to June. Marine exports recorded the highest volume of exports for the year so far at 399.8 metric tonnes, as 6 foreign vessels unloaded their catch at Tonga’s port. The secondary sector also showed positive activities. Individual housing loans and business construction loans increased by $2.9 million (1.7%) and $0.5 million (5.0%) respectively over the month which supported the construction sector. In the tertiary sector, the number of container registrations fell by 45 containers (4.2%) over the month to 1,011 containers. Both private and business container registrations fell by 35 and 10 registrations respectively. Additionally, vehicle registrations declined by 45 vehicles (13.0%). International arrivals, on the other hand, increased by 14.4%, which is attributed to visitors attending the annual church conferences, as well as the whale watching season, supporting the tourism sector and spillover effects to other sectors such as the transportation and trade sectors.
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Domestically, partial economic indicators reflected mixed growth during the month. The total volume of agricultural exports increased by 262.9 tonnes (48.9%). This was driven by better harvest of root crops during the month and the commencement of the watermelon exports to New Zealand. According to the Reserve Bank’s liaison program, the domestic agricultural and fish market had abundant supply to accommodate the increased demand in May and the starting of annual church conferences.
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Domestically, economic activities reflected slow growth during the month. Primary sector activities in April 2017 were slightly similar to March 2017, the total volume of agricultural exports declined by 45.6 tonnes (7.8%) largely due to a 66.0 tonnes (22.6%) decline in cassava exports. According to the Reserve Bank’s liaison program, the domestic agricultural and fish markets were similar to the previous month with no significant trend. Activities in the construction sector continued to lift performance in the secondary sector, supported by an increase in housing loans by $2.0 million over the month and also rise in the number of electricity consumers by 45 customers.
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Domestically, economic activities were mixed during the month. Primary sector activities varied, the total volume of agricultural exports continued to rise by 175.7 tonnes (42.5%). This was attributed to the increase in the export of root crops which rose by 136.5 tonnes (41.5%). Yam and cassava crops drove the increase reflecting the harvesting season of late yams. Contrastingly, total marine exports decreased by 77.1 metric tons (32.4%) largely due to a fall in the export of tuna and almost all aquarium products. Activities in the secondary sector reflected consistent strong growth as construction works continued to grow. This is in line with the increase in the number of electricity consumers by 76 new customers.
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The domestic economy picked up after slow growth recorded in January, a similar trend to previous years. The agricultural sector improved due to a good harvest of root crops which outweighed the off season for fruits and vegetables during the month. This is evident in the increased prices of local fruits and vegetables in February 2017 by 23.6%. The agricultural exports volume rose by 182.8 tonnes (79.1%), largely due to a 155.5 tonnes (89.8%) rise in the volume of exported roots crops. The fisheries sector showed a mixed trend for its marine exports. The volume of fish exported over the month rose by 14.1 metric tons driven by a 17.1 metric tons increase in the volume of tuna exported. However, the export of all types of aquarium products decreased over the month by 3,264 pieces.
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Domestically, the economic activities somewhat slowed in January 2017, comparing to December 2016. This trend is similar to previous years. The winding down of economic activity was due to seasonality in the agricultural products as well as the end of the festive and Christmas holiday season. From the primary sector, the agricultural export volume continued to fall over the month of January by 63.2% to 208.4 tonnes, due to the decrease in exports of all major agricultural products, mostly root crops. Furthermore, according to the NRBT liaison program with growers in the domestic agricultural market, the supply of root crops and vegetables slightly declined over the month due to seasonality. The vegetable production is currently in low season which usually starts in November to March of every year due to climate condition. However, it was noted that the favorable watermelon season towards the end of last year, lasted to January 2017.
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During the month of December 2016, overall domestic economic activities continued to support the NRBT’s expectation of stronger growth for 2016/17. The performance of all sectors was favourable except for the agricultural sector recording lower export volume, similar to December last year. Agricultural exports fell by 9.1% (58.2 tonnes) during the month but over the year it has increased by 11.2% (798 tonnes). Similar to previous years, exports in December have always been slightly lower than November, due to expectations that the domestic agricultural production is stronger in December to meet the high demand during the festive Christmas season. However, growth in the secondary sector was seen in business loans for manufacturing increasing by $0.1 million (0.8%) over the month and $0.8 million (18.3%) over the year, and housing loans increasing over the month by $2.7 million (1.8%). Additionally, consumption and production of electricity have increased in December 2016 by 0.2 million kilowatts and 0.3 million kilowatts respectively which is in line with the rise in the number of consumers by 87 households. The increased usage of air conditioning due to the hot summer weather may have also contributed to the higher consumption of electricity.
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Indicators of local economic activities were mixed in November 2016 but overall, broadly positive. The closing of the squash season contributed largely to a fall in agricultural export volumes by 2,686.0 tonnes (80.7%). Increases in business loans for construction and individual housing loans continue to support the economic activities in the secondary sector. The performance in the services sector varied over the month. The container registrations rose by 286 containers (35.5%) in November 2016 led by rises in both business and private container registrations. This reflects expectation of an increase in consumption in preparation for the Christmas holidays. On the other hand, vehicle registrations declined in November by 20 vehicles (5.8%). The financial sector remained strong during the month and continued to record higher credit growth.
