Inflation has generally been easing from its peak of 14% in September 2022. The Reserve Bank’s Governor Tatafu Moeaki stated that “the February 2023 Monetary Policy Statement adjustment to the money supply and its exchange rate policy remains a priority to fight against inflation and will keep a tight stance where appropriate to minimize the negative impacts on families purchasing power, especially the poorer and vulnerable.”
2. Specific credit easing in liaison with the Government to support supply shortages and accelerate recovery in agriculture, fisheries, tourism, and manufacturing are allowed to separate from money supply objectives. The policy separation is crucial to avoid an unwarranted slowdown in economic growth. The main contributors to the headline inflation rate of February 2023 from highest to lowest are:
- Domestic food items (2.2 percentage points)
- Fuel, gas, and electricity (1.7 percentage points)
- Imported food items (1.3 percentage points)
- Construction materials (0.7 percentage points)
- Local transport services, ferry, and freight (0.6 percentage points)
- Catering services (0.4 percentage points)
- Goods for personal care such as toiletries (0.3 percentage points)
- Alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and kava (0.3 percentage points)
3. Domestic food supply has been low due to the longer-than-expected lingering impacts of HTHH and COVID-19 lockdowns. Energy prices were high due to global oil price hikes caused by the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, imported commodities were affected by disruptions to the supply chain and shipping since the COVID-19 restrictions.
4. However, there are signs of improvements in the global supply chains and global oil prices had been declining until March 2023. The housing reconstruction is progressing well and the agricultural sector is also expected to recover, improving local food supply. Headline inflation is expected to continue to fall within the 5% reference rate in the second half of 2023. However, unexpected shocks to global oil prices and natural hazards still pose a risk to this outlook. Governor Moeaki stated that “the Reserve Bank will continue to prioritize the fight against inflation in Tonga as part of its stability goals and protect the poor and vulnerable families’ purchasing power for basic necessities.”
Na’e pēseti ‘e 8.7 ‘a e hikihiki fakata’u e totongi koloa fakalūkufua ‘i he lipooti ki he Hikihiki e Totongi Koloa (CPI) ‘o Fepueli. Ko e holo ‘eni mei he pēseti ‘e 9.7 ‘i he māhina kuo’osi΄, pea ma’ulalo ange ‘i he pēseti ‘e 9.1 ‘i Fepueli 2022. ‘Oku hokohoko atu ‘a e holo ‘a e hikihiki e totongi koloa fakalūkufua mei´ he tu’unga mā’olunga ko e pēseti ‘e 14 ‘i Sepitema 2022. Na’e pehē ‘e he Kōvana ‘a e Pangikē Pule΄, Tatafu Moeaki, “ ‘Oku kei hoko pē ‘a e ngaahi liliu ki he pa’anga fakalūkufua e fonua΄ mo e fokotu’utu’u ngāue fekau’aki mo e mahu’inga ‘o e pa’anga Tonga ‘i hono fakafetongi mo e ngaahi pa’anga muli΄ ‘a ia ne hā ‘i he Fokotu’utu’u Ngāue Fakapa’anga ‘o Fepueli 2023, ko e taumu’a ngāue tu’ukimu’a ki hono holoki ‘a e hikihiki e totongi koloa΄ pea ‘e malava ke hokohoko atu e ngaahi liliu´ ‘o ka fiema’u ke fakasi’isi’i e ngaahi ola kovi ‘i he holo e ivi fakatau ‘a e ngaahi fāmili΄ kae tautefito kiate kinautolu ‘oku masivesiva ange mo tu’u laveangofua”.
2. ‘Oku faka’atā ke fakamakehekehe’i ‘a e ngaahi palani ngāue mo e Pule’anga΄ ki hono fakafaingofua’i ‘a e nō ke tokonia ‘a e ngaahi fe’amokaki ‘i hono tuku mai e koloa΄ ki he kakai, mo fakavave’i ‘a e tu’unga fakaakeake ‘i he sekitoa ngoue΄, toutai, takimamata mo e fa’u koloa΄, pea mei´ he ngaahi taumu’a ngāue ‘oku fakatefito ‘i he pa’anga fakalūkufua e fonua΄. ‘Oku mahu’inga ‘aupito ‘a hono fakamavahevahe’i ‘a e ngaahi fa’unga ngāue ko eni΄ ke ta’ota’ofi ha holo ‘ikai ha makatu’unga lelei ‘a e tupu faka’ekonōmika. Ko e ngaahi tefito’i koloa ‘eni na’e makatu’unga ai ‘a e hikihiki e totongi koloa΄ ‘i Fepueli 2023, mei he lahi taha ki he si’isi’i taha ‘o ‘enau tānaki kihe hikihiki e totongi koloa´:
- Koloa me’akai fakalotofonua (pēseti poini ‘e 2.2)
- Koloa lolo, kasa, mo e ‘uhila (pēseti poini ‘e 1.7)
- Koloa me’akai hū mai mei tu’apule’anga (pēseti poini ‘e 1.3)
- Koloa naunau langa (pēseti poini ‘e 0.7)
- Ngaahi sēvesi fefononga’aki fakalotofonua΄, vaka tahi, mo ‘ene ngaahi totongi feleti (pēseti poini ‘e 0.6)
- Ngaahi sēvesi falekai (pēseti poini ‘e 0.4)
- Koloa ki he fiema’u fakataautaha (personal care items; i.e. toiletries) (pēseti poini ‘e 0.3)
- Kava mālohi, tapaka, mo e kava Tonga (pēseti poini ‘e 0.3)
3. Na’e si’isi’i ‘a e koloa me’akai fakalotofonua ‘oku fakatau atu´ makatu’unga mei he lōloa ange ‘a e uesia mei he Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai΄ (HTHH) mo e ngaahi tāpuni ‘o e Kōviti-19. Na’e hiki mā’olunga ‘a e totongi e koloa ma’u’anga ivi΄, makatu‘unga mei he fakautuutu ‘a e hikihiki e totongi lolo fakamāmani lahi koe‘uhi′ ko e tau ‘i ‘Iukuleini΄. ‘I he taimi tatau, na’e uesia ‘a e ngaahi koloa hū mai mei tu’apule’anga΄ makatu’unga mei hono uesia ‘e he Koviti-19 ‘a e halanga fakatupu’anga koloa fakamāmani lahi mo e fefononga’aki vakatahi΄.
4. Kaekehe, ‘oku ‘i ai ‘a e ngaahi faka’ilonga ‘oku fakalakalaka ‘a e ngaahi halanga fakatupu’anga koloa fakamāmani lahi΄, pea na’e holo ‘a e totongi lolo fakamāmani lahi΄ ‘o a’u mai ki Ma’asi 2023. ‘Oku lele lelei pe ‘a e ngaahi poloseki langa΄ pea ‘oku fakafuofua ke fakaakeake ‘a e sekitoa ngoue ‘o fakalakalaka ai hono tuku mai e koloa me’akai fakalotofonua. ‘Oku fakafuofua ke hokohoko atu pe ‘a e holo ‘a e hikihiki fakata’u e totongi koloa fakalūkufua ki he tu’unga fe’unga ko e pēseti ‘e 5 ‘i he konga hono ua ‘o e ta’u 2023. Kaekehe, ‘oku malava ke uesia ‘a e fakafuofua΄ni ’o ka hoko ha ngaahi hiki fakatu’upakē ki he totongi lolo fakamāmani lahi΄ pē ko ha ngaahi fakatamaki fakaenatula. Na’e pehē ‘e Kōvana Moeaki, “ ‘E hokohoko atu pē ‘a e taumu’a ngāue ‘a e Pangikē Pule΄ ki hono holoki ‘a e hikihiki e totongi koloa ‘i Tonga΄, ko e konga ‘o e taumu’a ngāue ki hono pukepuke e tu’unga ma’uma’uluta fakapa’anga΄ mo hono malu’i e ivi fakatau ‘o e ngaahi fiema’u tefito ‘a e ngaahi fāmili ‘oku masiva mo tu’u laveangoufa”.
