Since February 2023, the Reserve Bank prioritized slowing down headline inflation which continued to slow to 7.4 percent in April 20231 (from a peak of 14 percent in September 2022). Inflation is expected to return below the Reserve Bank reference rate of 5 percent towards the second half of 2023 and in 2024 with continuing lower petroleum prices as in June 2023, stable commodity prices, supply chain improvements and local productive sector rebound.
‘The Reserve Bank policy measures under its February 2023 Monetary Policy Statement are on track to support Tonga’s economic rebound from negative growth in 2022 towards a positive growth of 2.5 percent in 2023, and over 3.0 percent projected for 2024 supported by annual increasing credit to the private sector through our commercial banks expected to reach over 9 percent growth by September 2023 enabled by high liquidity’ said Governor Tatafu Moeaki.
Tonga’s exchange rate policy framework saw the Tongan Pa’anga appreciated against our major trading currencies in June 2023 and continue to maintain adequate level of foreign reserves (12 months of imports in June 2023) for over two years to date, and projected to manage external balances in the short to medium term.
Credit easing to support the productive sector address supply disruptions including agriculture, fisheries, tourism and manufacturing were requested to the Government to support through the Ministry of Finance budget and fiscal policies.
External risks, negative impacts on petroleum prices and elevated inflation in our key trading partners will weigh on both the world economy and Tonga whilst natural hazards continue to threaten the local economy in the short to medium term. The Reserve Bank's current monetary policy measures under its February 2023 Monetary Policy Statement are under review with the aim to update the policy measures in August 2023 to ensure monetary and financial policies are consistent with price stability objectives and offer room to deal with internal and external shocks.’
1 - Measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI), Statistics Department, April 2023.
Ngaahi Fokotu‘utu‘u Ngāue Fakapa‘anga ‘a e Pangikē Pule′: Fakahoko ngāue fakatatau ki he ta‘au ‘o taimi ke tokoni‘i ‘a e fakaakeake faka‘ekonōmika ‘e fonua
Hili ‘a e fakatamaki Kōviti 19´ ‘i he 2022´ mo e ngaahi maumau mei he paa ‘a e mo’ungaafi HTHH pea mo e peaukula mo hono kafu efuˊ e Fonua, ‘oku matu‘aki mahu’inga ‘a e fokotu’utu’u ngaue fakapa’anga ‘a e Pangikē Pule Fakafonua ‘o Tonga′ ke tokoni‘i ‘a e langa fakaakeake he ‘ekonōmika ‘o e fonuaˊ mo e malu ‘o e tu’unga fakapa’anga fakalūkufua ‘i he 2023ˊ, mo e tukunga mateuteu ki ha ngaahi fakatamaki fakafokifā mei he lolotonga ni ki he kaha’u vave maiˊ. Talu mei Fepueli 2023ˊ, na’e fakamahu’inga’i ‘e he Pangikē Pule′ ‘a hono feinga ke holoki ‘a e hikihiki ma’olunga ‘i he totongi koloa fakalūkufuaˊ, ‘a ia kuo holo hifo ki he peseti ‘e 7.4 ‘i Epeleli 2023ˊ1 (ko e holo eni mei he tu’unga ma’olunga ko e peseti ‘e 14 ‘i Sepitema 2022). ‘Oku fakafuofua ke hokohoko atu pe ‘a e holo ‘a e hikihiki e totongi koloa fakalūkufua ki he tu’unga ma’ulalo he pēseti ‘e 5 ‘i he konga kimui ‘o e ta’u 2023ˊ mo e ta’u 2024ˊ. ‘Oku fakatefito ia ‘i he fakafuofua ‘e holo ai pe ‘a e totongi lolo ‘o hangē ko ia ‘i Sune 2023ˊ, tu’uma’u ‘a e totongi ‘o e koloaˊ, fakalakalaka ‘a e halanga fakatupu’anga koloa fakamāmani lahiˊ, pea mo e toe lelei ange ‘a e ngaahi sekitoa fakatupu koloa fakalotofonua′.
Fakatatau ki he fakamatala ‘a e Kovana′, Tatafu Moeaki, “Ko e ngaahi fokotu’utu’u ngaue ‘a e Pangike Pule ‘a ia ‘oku ha atu ‘I he’ene Fakamatala Fokotu'utu'u Ngaue Fakapa‘anga ki Fepueli 2023′, ‘oku tokoni ki he tupu faka’ekonōmika ‘a Tonga ke hiki hake mei he’ene holo ‘i he 2022 ki ha tupu peseti ‘e 2.5 ‘i he 2023 pea laka hake ‘i he peseti ‘e 3.0 ‘i he 2024. ‘Oku fakatefito eni ‘i he fakafuofua ‘e lahi ange ‘a e nō ‘oku tuku atu ‘e he pangikē fakakomesiale ki he ngaahi sekitoa taautaha, ‘a ia ‘e kake ‘aki ‘a e peseti ‘e 9 ‘i he ta‘u ki Sepitema 2023, ‘o makatu‘unga mei he kei ma’olunga ‘a e pa’anga ngāue pea ‘ataa ke noo atu mei he ngaahi pangikē.
Na‘e hā mai mei he fokotu‘utu‘u ngāue fekau‘aki mo e mahu‘inga 'o e Pa‘anga Tonga ‘i hono fakafetongi moe ngaahi pa'anga muli′, ‘oku faka’au ke malohiange ange ‘a e Pa’anga Tonga′ ‘i hono fakahoa ki he pa’anga ‘a e ngaahi fonua ‘oku tau fefakatau’aki mo ia′ ‘i Sune 2023. Pea kuo a’u ‘o ta’u ‘e ua ‘a e hokohoko atu pē ‘a e tu‘unga fakafiemalie ‘oku ‘i ai ‘a e pa’anga talifaki ‘i muli ‘a e fonua′ (‘a ia na’e fe’unga mo e mahina ‘e 12 ‘o e koloa hū mai′ ‘i Sune 2023) pea ‘oku fakafuofua ke tokanga’i lelei pe ‘a e ngaahi palanisi e fefakatau‘aki mo muli′ ‘i he kaha’u vave mai.
Na’e fakahoko atu foki ha kole ki he Pule’anga′ ke nau tokoni mai ke fakafaingofua’i ange ‘a e nō ‘a e ngaahi sekitoa fakatupu koloa na’e uesia ‘enau ngaahi ngaue ‘o kau ai ‘a e ngoue, toutai, takimamata pea mo e sekitoa fakatupu koloa, kae fakakau atu ‘i he patiseti mo e fokotu‘utu‘u ng‘āue ‘a e Potungaue Pa’anga′.
‘E uesia fakatou’osi ‘a e ‘ekonomika ‘a mamani pea mo Tonga′ni ‘e he ngaahi fakatamaki pe uesia lalahi faka-tu‘apule‘anga′, toe mamafa ange totongi lolo′, pea mo e hikihiki ‘o e totongi ‘o e koloa ‘i he ngaahi fonua ‘oku fefakatau‘aki mo Tonga′ni. Pea ‘e kei hokohoko atu ai pe ‘a e tu’u lavea ngofua ‘a Tonga′ni ki he ngaahi fakatu’utamaki fakenatula ‘i he lolotonga ni pea mo e kaha’u vave mai′. ‘Oku kei fakahoko ‘a hono toe siofi ‘o e ngaahi tu’utu’uni ngaue fakapa’anga lolotonga ‘a e Pangike Pule ‘a ia ‘oku ha ‘I he’ene Fakamatala Fokotu'utu'u Ngaue ki Fepueli 2023. ‘Oku fakataumu’a eni ke toe fakalelei’i ‘a e ngaahi tu’utu’uni ngaue′ ‘i ‘Aokosi 2023 ke fakapapau’i ‘oku fenāpasi ‘a e ngaahi tu’utu’uni ngaue fakapa’anga pea mo e ngaahi taumu’a ki hono ta'ota'ofi 'a e hikihiki 'i he tu'unga 'o e totongi koloa′ pea mo toe fakafaingamalie ‘a e fokotu‘utu′u ngāue fakapa’anga ki he taimi ‘e hoko ai ha fakatamaki fakafokifā fakalotofonua pe fakatu’apule’anga.
1 - Ngaue‘aki ‘a e me‘afua ki he hikihiki ‘i he totongi koloa′, Potungāue Sitetisitika, ‘Epeleli 2023.
