- Monetary Policy Statement: February 2023 PDF 917 KB DOWNLOAD THE FULL STATEMENT
Despite fluctuations exceeding the 5% reference rate in January 2024, headline inflation has eased to 3.6% in February 2024. Governor Moeaki stated that “while recent improvements are noted, NRBT remains vigilant regarding domestic inflation risks. Economic growth forecasts for FY 2024 have been revised downward, although foreign reserves remain at comfortable levels. The February 2024 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) will keep a watchful eye on domestic inflation and its focus will be twofold: firstly, to uphold macroeconomic stability by keeping inflation below the 5% reference rate, with closer collaboration with the government on targeted reforms to alleviate Tonga's high cost structure; and secondly, to implement measures ensuring financial stability and fostering access to financing for underserved and climate change-vulnerable sectors.”
The lower inflation in February 2024 was mainly driven by lower energy prices and improved local food prices. Annual average inflation decreased to 6.4% in December 2023 from 10.9% percent in December 2022. Inflation is expected to continue to remain below the reference rate in 2024, but this is highly vulnerable to the volatility in local food prices associated with Tonga’s high susceptibility to natural disasters, extreme weather events, labour market mismatches, the current rising energy prices, and other external shocks.
Tonga’s economic growth projected for the FY 2024 is 2.2%, a downward revision from the 2.6% forecasted in the August 2023 MPS due to lower than expected production in both the primary and secondary sectors. However, this reflects the need for financial sector support to stimulate private sector growth. This is also compounded by tight labour market stemming from skill mismatches and labour force migration hindering economic activities and contributing to domestic inflationary pressures.
Foreign reserves remains robust exceeding the 7.5 months of import cover standing at $891.4 million by February 2024, equivalent to 11.4 months of import cover.
The banking system is supportive of economic growth, with annual credit growth of 6.4% in January 2024. However, an increase in non-performing loans to 12.1% of total loans in December 2023 from 6.0% 12 months before is monitored closely as part of the economic recovery. Enhanced supervision of banks and non-bank financial institutions on-going to moderate financial stability risks. Overall, the banking system remains sound with adequate capital and ample liquidity to absorb any shock to the system. The NRBT will continue to closely monitor both global and domestic economic developments and align its monetary policy as needed.
Hokohoko atu Tokanga Makehe ‘a e Pangikē Pule΄ ki he Hikihiki ‘a e Totongi Koloa Fakalotofonua΄ ‘i he‘ene Tu‘utu‘uni Ngāue Fakapa‘anga Fepueli 2024
Kuo tuku atu ‘e he Pangikē Pule Fakafonua ‘o Tonga´ ‘a ‘ene Fakamatala Tu‘utu‘uni Ngāue Fakapa‘anga ‘o Fepueli 2024 hili ‘a hono tali ‘e he Poate ‘a e kau Talēkita΄.
Na’e fetō‘aki ‘a e hikihiki ‘i he totongi koloa fakalūkufua΄ ‘i he ta’u kuo hili´ ka kuo holo ki he peseti ‘e 3.6 ‘i Fepueli 2024. Na’e pehē ‘e Kovana Moeaki, “neongo ‘a e holo ‘a e totongi koloa΄, ‘oku kei lahi pe ‘a e faingamalie ke toe mā’olunga ange ‘a e totongi koloa mei hikihiki e totongi e koloa fakalotofonua΄”. ‘E kei tokangaekina pē ‘e he Tu’utu’uni Ngāue Fakapa‘anga ‘o Fepueli 2024΄ ‘a e hikihiki ‘i he totongi koloa fakalotofonua΄: ‘uluaki΄ ke ta’ota’ofi ‘a e hikihiki ‘a e totongi koloa΄ ke ma’ulalo pē ‘i he peseti ‘e 5 ke tauhi ‘a e ma’uma’uluta faka’ekonōmika ‘a e fonua΄, pea fengāue‘aki vāofi ange mo e Pule‘anga΄ ke holoki ‘a e fa‘unga totongi koloa΄ (high cost structure); pea ua΄, fakapapau’i ‘a e malu ‘a e tafa‘aki fakapa‘anga΄ mo faka‘ai‘ai ‘a e nō ki he ngaahi sekitoa ‘oku ‘ikai ke lahi ha’anau faingamalie nō mei he ngaahi pangikē, mo tu’u laveangofua ki he feliuliuaki ‘a e ‘ea΄.”
Na’e makatu’unga ‘a e ma’ulalo ‘a e hikihiki e totongi koloa΄ ‘i Fepueli 2024 mei he holo ‘a e totongi lolo΄ pea mo e koloa me’akai fakalotofonua΄. Na‘e holo ‘a e ‘avalisi ‘a e hikihiki fakata’u ‘a e totongi koloa fakalūkufua΄ ki he peseti ‘e 6.4 ‘i Tisema 2023, ko e holo mei he peseti ‘e 10.9 ‘i he 2022. ‘Oku fakafuofua ke ma’ulalo ai pē ‘a e hikihiki ‘a e totongi koloa fakalūkufua´ ‘i he peseti ‘e 5 ki he toenga ‘o e ta’u 2024΄, tukukehe ha toe feliuliuaki ‘i he totongi ‘o e me’akai fakalotofonua´ tupu mei he tu‘u laveangofua ‘a e fonua΄ ki he ngaahi fakatamaki fakaenatula´, ngaahi fetōkehekehe ‘aki ‘i he fiema’u kau ngaue΄, hikihiki ‘a e totongi lolo fakamamani lahi΄, pea mo e ngaahi pole kehe mei tu’apule’anga΄. Kuo holoki ‘a e fakafuofua ki he tupu faka’ekonōmika ‘a e fonua΄ mei he peseti ‘e 2.6 ki he peseti ‘e 2.2 ‘i he 2024´, makatu’unga ‘i he ‘ikai ke ola lelei ange ‘a e ngoue´, vaotātaa´ mo e toutai´ pea pehē foki ki he tafa’aki fakatupu koloa´. ‘Oku fiema’u ke tokoni’i ‘a e tupu ‘a e ngaahi pisinisi taautaha´ ‘a ia ‘oku toe uesia ‘e he tokosi’i ange 'a e kau ngāue ‘oku nau ma’u e taukei ngāue ‘oku fiema’u΄, pea ‘oku toe kaunga foki eni ki he hikihiki ‘a e totongi koloa´. ‘Oku kei mā’olunga pē ‘a e pa’anga talifaki ‘i muli ‘a e fonua´ ‘o fe‘unga mo e $891.4 miliona ‘i he faka’osinga ‘o Fepueli 2024, ‘o fe’unga eni mo e māhina ‘e 11.4 ‘o e koloa hū mai´.
‘Oku tokoni ‘a e tupu peseti ‘e 6.4 ‘a e ngaahi nō kuo tali ‘e he ngaahi pangikē´ ‘i he ta’u kakato ki Sanuali 2024´ki he tupu faka’ekonōmika´ ka ‘oku tokanga ‘a e Pangikē Pule´ ki he ma’olunga ange e kaka ‘a e ngaahi nō palopalema´ ki he peseti 12.1 mei he peseti 6.0 ‘i he vaha’a taimi tatau pea ‘oku tokangaekina makehe ‘a e tō kehekehe ko eni. ‘Oku ‘i he tukunga lelei pē ‘a e ngaahi pangikē´, makatu’unga ‘i he kei ma’olunga pē ‘a e sino’i pa’anga tefito (capital) pea mo e kei faingamālie lahi pē toenga ‘enau pa’anga ngāue´ ke nō atu ki tu’a´. ‘E hokohoko atu pē ‘a hono muimui’i ofi ‘e he Pangikē Pule´ ‘a e ngaahi fakalakalaka faka’ekonōmika fakalotofonua´ mo e fakamāmani lahi´, pea fakahoko ‘a e ngaahi liliu ki he’ene tu’utu’uni ngāue fakapa’anga΄ ‘o ka fiema’u.
