1. Tonga: Technical Assistance Report-Modernizing the Monetary Policy Framework and Operations of the NRBT

The IMF conducted a Technical Assistance mission to assist the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) in modernizing its monetary policy framework. The mission aimed to address persistent challenges such as excess liquidity and an inactive interbank market, which have impeded effective monetary policy transmission. The mission is significant as it builds on previous IMF assistance and addresses key vulnerabilities in Tonga's monetary policy framework. The mission also aligns with ongoing Fund surveillance and program priorities.

2. Tonga: Technical Assistance Report-Macroeconomic Frameworks Technical Assistance (TA) on Developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT)

This technical assistance (TA) report presents the outcomes of the multi-year National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) TA project, conducted between late-2021 and mid-2025 over a total of eleven missions, five in-person and six virtual. The project focused on building new institutional capacity for model-based policy analysis and macroeconomic forecasting, along its integration into monetary policy processes and external communications.

3. Tonga: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

Tonga’s economy is expanding steadily, driven by stronger-than-expected grant inflows, elevated remittances, a rebound in tourism, and fiscal support for the reconstruction. Headline inflation has declined below the reference rate, driven by lower food and energy prices, but core inflation has picked up, reflecting stronger domestic demand. Risks in the banking sector remain contained but have increased and require continued vigilance. 

4. IMF and NRBT: A Quarterly Projection Model for Tonga

This paper customizes to the Tongan economy a macroeconomic model for medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables (QPM): output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate. The model is calibrated to embody the specific attributes of the Tongan economy such as the persistence of domestic output, core inflation and interest rates, as well as Tonga’s monetary policy transmission.